S28E09 Preview – Magic Milestones
100 NRL matches up for two magical players
Melbourne hosting Canberra in Brisbane because rea$ons. Just NRL things.
100 matches for Paps and Eli
Two milestones to celebrate for Melbourne this weekend.
Eli Katoa will make his 54th appearance for the Storm which means it will be his 100th NRL match. His career started with the Warriors in round 1 of the 2020 NRL season, with the story going that he had only played a baker’s dozen of rugby league matches before making his debut in the big time.
Katoa scored a try in his third NRL match, an 18–0 win over the Dragons in Gosford in the Warriors first game back from the pandemic break.1 He would score a further five tries for the season, including a double in the final round against Manly. In total, Katoa played 46 matches with the Warriors scoring ten tries. He was released from his contract with them to join the Storm ahead of the 2023 season.
For Melbourne Eli Katoa has been great, especially on the right edge. It took a while for him to score his first try for the club, not crossing the line until his 11th match. Since then though he’s gone from strength to strength scoring 21 tries in 53 appearances, being named in the 2024 Dally M Team of the Year in the second row. He also made his international debut for Tonga in 2023, scoring his second test try in the Pacific Championships final against the Kangaroos last year.
A Balmain and Wests Tigers junior, Ryan Papenhuyzen was signed by Melbourne during the 2017 season. He would play the 2018 season with the Sunshine Coast Falcons, scoring three tries from 15 appearances. He got his chance at NRL level in round 4 of the 2019 season, coming off the bench for the final 13 minutes against the Bulldogs.2 Maintaining his spot on the bench, he scored a try in his third match against the Sharks.
It was the following week at the 2019 Magic Round that the rugby league world knew the name Ryan Papenhuyzen…
Paps scored one and set up two more in a big win over the Eels. He backed that up the following week in his first start at fullback to score this try against the Tigers.
He would make 22 appearances in 2019, eventually replacing Jahrome Hughes at fullback in the run to the finals. The following season was Paps best in the NRL, scoring 11 tries in 20 matches, captaining the club in the final round match against the Dragons, and scoring four tries in the final including one in the Grand Final win against the Panthers to collect the Clive Churchill Medal.
Knocked out in the 2021 Magic Round match against the Dragons, Paps had to wait to bring up his 50th match for the club, reaching that milestone in the 37–10 win over the Panthers in round 20. His form to start the 2022 season was off the charts. Four tries against the Bulldogs in round 4 showed his dominance. That haul came in the middle of a six game stretch where he scored ten tries, crossing the line in six straight matches.
That run came to an abrupt end in round 9 against the Dragons at AAMI Park when he suffered a hamstring injury which put him on the sidelines for almost two months. Then in his third match back he suffered the fractured kneecap injury against the Raiders that kept him out for almost the entire 2023 season. Thankfully the broken leg he suffered in the 2023 qualifying final healed in time for Paps to start the 2024 season. In 2024, Paps scored 13 tries from 20 appearances, regaining some of the electric speed that the injuries has taken away from him.
Paps will be the 44th Storm player to play 100 matches with the club. He’s scored 69 tries (9th overall) and scored 528 points (6th overall). He’s the only player in club history to score a two-point field goal, coming in the 2021 qualifying final against Manly.
Congratulations to both Paps and Eli on reaching 100 matches. Rip in and run hard and tackle hard and get the win. Hopefully game 101 at AAMI Park can be another celebration.
Stat attack
Melbourne have played three previous matches on 4 May, losing to both the Knights (2002) and Raiders (2013), but winning last year’s match against the Titans.
This is the second meeting of these teams at Suncorp Stadium, Melbourne won the previous meeting 30–10 to progress to the 2020 NRL Grand Final.
Melbourne have won the past two matches against Canberra and seven of the past ten. Overall Melbourne have beaten the Raiders 38 times from 54 matches.
Storm fans haven’t been able to go on a road trip to Canberra since 2021 with matches played at the Sunshine Coast (2021) and Wagga Wagga (2022). The previous four matches have all been at AAMI Park.
Billy Slater scored 14 tries in 25 appearances against the Raiders, but was fortunate not to be decapitated by the foul play of Sia Soliola back in 2017. How Soliola wasn’t sent off still boggles the mind.
Players that have played in this fixture for both teams include Ben Cross, Brett Finch, Ryan Hinchcliffe, Brenko Lee, Mark Nicholls, Curtis Scott, Glen Turner, Brett White, and 2015 Canberra Raiders marquee signing Sisa Waqa.
Melbourne have won three of their five Magic Round matches.
Team line-up
Ryan Papenhuyzen
Sualauvi Fa’alogo
Grant Anderson
Nick Meaney
Xavier Coates
Cameron Munster ©
Jahrome Hughes ©
Stefano Utoikamanu
Bronson Garlick
Josh King
Shawn Blore
Eliesa Katoa
Trent Loeiro
Tyran Wishart
Alec MacDonald
Tui Kamikamica
Joe Chan
Ativalu Lisati
Lazarus Vaalepu
Kane Bradley
Keagan Russell-Smith
Nelson Asofa-Solomona
Referee: Gerard Sutton (Bunker: Grant Atkins)
Preview
Melbourne Storm vs Canberra Raiders
— Suncorp Stadium, 6:25pm Sunday 4 May 2025
Suncorp Sua is in? Confusing… maybe a little. After failing his HIA during the win over the Rabbitohs, he then had no remaining symptoms so he didn’t have to enter the concussion protocols. How odd. Especially as Will Warbrick is still unavailable.
His selection sees Kane Bradley relegated to the reserves, while Joe Chan continues on the bench. Selected with him is Tui Kamikamica who is returning from an ankle injury… but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him withdrawn in favour of Nelson Asofa-Solomona. The big man looked good in his first run in a month for the Falcons. I’d suggest if you’re going to unleash him, the late Sunday night game is the one to do it in.3
No changes for the Raiders from the team that came from behind 28–10 at half time to then thrash the Red Fish 40–28. The Green Machine have put together a four-match winning streak to sit in second place on win percentage, having not had a bye yet this season.
For more on the Raiders, head over to The Sportress.
When charting the course through the season I had this one pegged down as a loss. While it’s a myth that the Raiders have some kind of edge on the Storm, we know that Ricky Stuart’s teams do their utmost to make things uncomfortable for Melbourne. That doesn’t often translate to wins, but the vibes are usually not great. Whether this team can work through the adversity that will present itself is the key factor for mine. Without Grant, Melbourne’s attack isn’t as fluent. That presents itself in more risk (especially from Munster) and less space (for Hughes). It leads to scoring being tougher and against well-organised defences, that’s an issue.
My expectation is that 26 points could win this one, so it’s whether or not Melbourne’s defence (average points against 21.7) or the Raiders (average points against 22.5) are capable of restricting the opponent’s attack remains to be seen.
Other than that, hopefully the relaid turf at Lang Park is less treacherous than it could be, especially with Melbourne in the off-Broadway time slot. Funny how that has worked out in what is a top four showdown.
What else is going on?
The Jersey Flegg squad are at Seabrook on Saturday afternoon (kickoff 1:30pm) against Jett Cleary and the Warriors. The visitors are in the chasing pack outside the finals places at this stage of the season having drawn against the Knights last weekend.
On Sunday afternoon (kickoff 1pm) at North Sydney Oval, the Bears face off against the Warriors. No Storm players are listed in the Norths team list at this stage, but that may well change come the weekend.
The Falcons are off to Townsville on Saturday (kickoff 5pm) which will be a tough trip against the undefeated Blackhawks. Also on Saturday (kickoff 6pm) the Tigers head north to Rockhampton to play the Capras.
In the Super Netball, the Lightning travel across to the far side of the continent to play the West Coast Fever on Saturday night (first pass 7pm). It feels like it’s been a while since the Lightning beat the Green Team, so I’m not looking forward to this one.
It’s State of Origin tonight for the women and Queensland should hopefully get the job done against the Sky Blues. The exhibition series is perfectly positioned before the start of the NRLW season, so it will be interesting to get a taste for how the women are looking ahead of the season commencing in July.
One last thing
Did enjoy this snippet from the One Six Seven Podcast…
Katoa was stuck in Australia during the pandemic break as he was denied entry back into New Zealand with his Warriors teammates.
Paps came on for NAS and was sitting out the back for the match-winning try from a scrum by Cameron Munster. Playing on the left wing he was out-jumped to a high ball by Will Hopoate who got it out to Reimis Smith to score a try with a couple of minutes to go. Rhyse Martin missed the conversion attempt that could have taken the match to extra time.
Well unless there’s a metric shittonne of sin bins and send offs in some kind of crackdown.