S27E30 Preview – Chasing chances

80 minutes stand between Melbourne and a chance at the premiership

Sep 25, 2024

To repeat myself from this time last year:

The ~~best~~/worst weekend of the year is here. Winning preliminary finals means your team has a chance of glory in the Grand Final. Losing preliminary finals feels much worse than losing in a Grand Final, with the opportunity lost of even having that priceless Grand Final day experience gone into the æther.
Preliminary finals range from stressful, panic-inducing affairs that are decided on one or two moments, to blowout wins that seemingly put a team on a path to destiny. Melbourne have run the gamut of these matches over the years.

Melbourne’s record in preliminary finals: 10 wins, five losses.

Unlike last year I will be at this year’s sold out preliminary final, hoping to see an end to Melbourne’s two match losing streak in trying to qualify for the Grand Final as the club tries for premiership seven.

Stat attack

Melbourne have played just once on 27 September, losing 30–22 to St George-Illawarra in the final round of the delayed 2020 season when Ryan Papenhuyzen captained a team missing many of the players who would go on to win the 2020 NRL Grand Final a month later.
Melbourne are on a five match winning streak against the Roosters, having only lost once since against them since Cooper Cronk retired.
The Roosters have won four matches from 13 visits to AAMI Park, winning in 2010, 2014, 2019 and 2022.
These team have played in five previous NRL finals matches, with the Roosters holding a 3-2 advantage.
Just five players remain in Melbourne’s announced squad that played in the 2020 NRL Grand Final, while seven players remain from the Roosters 2019 NRL Grand Final squad.
Since the start of the 2021 season, Melbourne have won 11 of 21 matches where Grant Atkins is the referee, having lost the previous two matches (against the Dragons in round 22 and the Cowboys in round 26). Melbourne have won two of six matches this season with Atkins as the referee.
Atkins sent Harry Grant (round 10 vs Sharks) and Joe Chan (round 20 vs Roosters) to the sin bin in 2024.
Since the start of the 2021 season, the Roosters have won 13 of 19 matches where Grant Atkins is the referee, and have won their last three matches with him as the referee.
Atkins has had to sent off and sin bin a number of Roosters players in 2024, putting Victor Radley in the bin (round 5 vs Bulldogs), while sending off Dominic Young in the same match. Sam Walker was binned and Junior Pauga sent off in their return match in round 16. Radley and Connor Watson were sin binned against Melbourne (round 20), with Naufahu Whyte put in the naughty corner in against Parramatta (round 24).

Team line-up

Ryan Papenhuyzen
Will Warbrick
Jack Howarth
Nick Meaney
Xavier Coates
Cameron Munster
Jahrome Hughes
Nelson Asofa-Solomona
Harry Grant © (100th NRL match)
Josh King
Shawn Blore
Eliesa Katoa
Trent Loeiro
Tyran Wishart
Christian Welch
Tui Kamikamica
Alec MacDonald
Grant Anderson
Kane Bradley
Lazarus Vaalepu
Joe Chan
Sualauvi Fa’alogo

Referee: Grant Atkins (Bunker: Wyatt Raymond)

Preview

Melbourne Storm vs Sydney Roosters
— AAMI Park, 19:50pm Friday 27 September 2024

The Roosters. Again. For the 51st time and the sixth time in finals.1

That Melbourne stand just 80 minutes from a grand final appearance was not in my predictions for 2024. With minimal changes from the 2023 roster that was exposed twice under the finals microscope, my thoughts going into this season was that it would be something of a building year for Melbourne. A re-calibration of sorts to see what this squad could do after another preseason, and perhaps a chance to bring through some of the younger players hungry for a taste of NRL action.

In the end, that is kinda what has happened in 2024. Melbourne are here as minor premiers because of natural progression, young players coming through due to injury and defined roles, as well as some subtle changes to the game plan along the way. Oh and the brilliance of Jahrome Hughes.

Hughes has been immense this season and was acknowledged by the RLPA as the halfback of the year this week, with Harry Grant and Eli Katoa also making the Players’ Dream Team. It will be interesting to see how he goes in the Dally M Medal counting next week and whether the decision not to challenge his suspension might prove costly.

Teams list Tuesday came around and there wasn’t much to report from the Storm. The same 17 that got the job done against the Sharks in the qualifying final, with Sua Fa’alogo returning to the extended squad.2 Over at the Roosters, they’re also unchanged from the team that defeated Manly, with Victor Radley getting through that game with his fractured scapula.

There’s been some media noise this week about the bad blood between these teams and hopefully Melbourne keep their eyes on the ball and not the nonsense that comes from penalty merchants in Roosters jerseys. If Radley and Waerea-Hargreaves want to act like headless chickens, leave it to the referee to deal with it. Whether we can trust Grant Atkins to do so though… well that’s another thing. I know that Melbourne need to keep 13 on the field against a Roosters team that averaged 30 points per game in the regular season.

Melbourne’s fourth ranked defence has coped well in 2024, with only the Broncos match early in the season and the Cowboys versus Renegades matches the only times Melbourne has conceded 30+ points this season. The Roosters were restricted to 12 and just eight points in the two matches between these teams this year, so the Storm know the way to win this will be through their defensive effort and attitude.

Match up wise, Melbourne’s outside backs will be on full alert this week. There will be chances in attack, especially up against Dom Young, but Jack Howarth and Nick Meaney will need to be at their best in defence.

It’s in the middle that this game will be won or lost. Getting over the advantage line and aiming for fast play-the-balls will be key to create space for the playmakers to get to work, while shutting down the Roosters offloads and their second phase play crucial to keep them out of attacking field position.

The September anxiety hit me hard this week.3 I have hope that the Storm can get the win this week and that there will be one more week…

But if the result doesn’t go Melbourne’s way on Friday night, hopefully there’s no external excuses or controversy. If the Roosters are the better team on the night, then so be it. Maybe they can end Penrith’s Grand Final domination.

But let’s hope Melbourne can get the job done this week and then go on to again do what teams from NSW and Queensland have so far failed to do: defeat Penrith in a Grand Final.

What else is going on?

For the second season in a row a Melbourne Storm affiliate will be in their state cup Grand Final. This year it’s the North Sydney Bears who will play off against the Newtown Jets in the New South Wales Cup Grand Final.

The match will be played on Sunday afternoon (kickoff 3pm) at Parramatta’s CommBank Stadium, with the broadcast available on 9now.

The Jets are the affiliate club for the Cronulla Sharks, so there will be some familiar faces on both sides of the field. The teams met in the major semi final a couple of weeks ago, with the Bears edging out the Jets 18–16 to book their spot in the decider, while the Jets had to back up and defeat the Raiders 18–16 at Leichhardt Oval on Saturday. The teams met twice during the regular season, with the Bears taking the first encounter at Henson Park 16–12 back in June, while the Jets won at North Sydney Oval 18–8 in mid-August.

I suspect that the Jets might have just a little bit too much firepower for the Bears. Newtown scored a tick over 27 points per game during the season and conceded 20.5 points per game. The Bears were similar in defence, conceding just a tick under 20 points per game, but found scoring a little harder at 23 points per game.

Looking at the team lists, Dean Ieremia, Bronson Garlick, Tepai Moeroa, Joe Chan and Ativalu Lisati have all been named for the Bears, so there will be strong Renegades representation. Go well to all the Storm players.4

One last thing

If this can happen, surely the very wealthy owners of the Melbourne Storm can return 12 matches to Melbourne as soon as possible, especially given there’s yet another hefty increase to the 11-match season tickets for 2025.