The best/worst weekend of the year is here. Winning preliminary finals means your team has a chance of glory in the Grand Final. Losing preliminary finals feels much worse than losing in a Grand Final, with the opportunity lost of even having that priceless Grand Final day experience gone into the æther.
Preliminary finals range from stressful, panic-inducing affairs that are decided on the one or two moments, to blowout wins that seemingly put a team on a path to destiny. Melbourne have run the gamut of these matches over the years.
Melbourne in preliminary finals
This will be Melbourne Storm’s 15th chance to qualify for the NRL Grand Final. Here’s the full list of those matches:
1999 defeated Parramatta 18–16 at the old SFS;
2006 defeated St George Illawarra 24–10 at Stadium Australia;
2007 defeated Parramatta 26–10 at Docklands;
2008 defeated Cronulla 28–0 at the old SFS;
2009 defeated Brisbane 40–10 at Docklands;
2011 lost to the Warriors 20–12 at AAMI Park;
2012 defeated Manly 40–12 at AAMI Park;
2015 lost to North Queensland 32–12 at AAMI Park;
2016 defeated Canberra 14–12 at AAMI Park;
2017 defeated Brisbane 30–0 at AAMI Park;
2018 defeated Cronulla 22–6 at AAMI Park;
2019 lost to the Roosters 21–6 at the SCG;
2020 defeated Canberra 30–10 at Lang Park;
2021 lost to the Panthers 10–6 at Lang Park.
I’ve attended 10 of these matches, missing 1999, 2008, and the two lockdown/pandemic years. I’ve written before about the 1999 match as I paced my old childhood home trying to listen to live radio coverage from north of the Murray river, while the rest of Victoria were watching the state be relieved of Jeff Kennett.1 While in 2008, thanks to the qualifying final upset loss to the Warriors, I was in Melbourne that Friday night instead of Sydney, to attend the AFL Grand Final.2
Due to needing to be in Melbourne this weekend for a different sporting passion #GKG👑, I won’t be making the trip to Sydney, instead having to endure the television broadcast. In preparation for that I did rewatch the 2020 NRL Grand Final this week to get into the right frame of mind…
Stat pack
Melbourne have played just once on 22 September, thrashing the Broncos 30–0 to qualify for the 2017 NRL Grand Final.
The Storm have suffered six straight defeats in matches in which referee Adam Gee has the whistle. Those matches include include both defeats by Penrith this season. Melbourne haven’t scored more than 16 points in any of those matches.
Since the removal of the second referee, Penrith have lost just once from 15 matches when Adam Gee is the referee. Their only defeat being the massive upset against the Wests Tigers in Bathurst earlier this season.
Only the Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs have defeated Melbourne three times in one season, doing it in 2003 and 2014. In matches where Melbourne had lost to a team twice during the regular season (or earlier in the finals series), the Storm defeated Parramatta (1999), St George-Illawarra (1999), and Cronulla (2018) in the third match.
Team line-up
Nick Meaney
Will Warbrick
Marion Seve
Justin Olam
Reimis Smith
Cameron Munster
Jahrome Hughes
Tui Kamikamica
Harry Grant
Christan Welch ©
Trent Loiero
Eliesa Katoa
Josh King
Tyran Wishart
Tom Eisenhuth
Nelson Asofa-Solomona
Tariq Sims
Grant Anderson
Bronson Garlick
Sualauvi Fa’alogo
Tepai Moeroa
Chris Lewis
Referee: Adam Gee (Bunker: Grant Atkins)
Preview
Team List Tuesday made me just slightly catatonic.
The good: Jahrome Hughes is back (maybe).
The bad: Jarome Luai (maybe) and Izack Tago are back for Penrith, and Nathan Cleary’s hospital visit was just a day trip.
The ugly: Adam Gee is the fucking referee.
Additionally ugly: seeing Storm players wearing Panthers gear for their opposed training session on Tuesday afternoon.
After watching most3 of this session, I suspect Hughes will play meaning Wishart will drop out of the squad should that be the case. Bronson Garlick would likely replace Wishart on the bench. Unfortunately for members of the Alec MacDonald fan club it looks like he’ll be missing again having also missed the Queensland Cup Grand Final with a hamstring injury. MacDonald (and Xavier Coates) were both restricted to stretching and time on the bike during the session. I’d also be surprised if Tepai Moeroa comes in unless there’s a middle forward struck down later this week.
As Mike Meehall Wood noted in his column at The Roar there are ways that Melbourne can legitimately beat Penrith, although I do wonder whether a bunch of misfortunes impacting the Panthers team might be more fun. I mean:
Isaah Yeo falling into the Springfield Mystery Spot;
Moses Loeta thinking he’s a chicken;
Dylan Edwards getting sidetracked saving people and property from a burning fire;
Nathan Cleary overdosing on nerve tonic;
Jarome Luai having a bad hair day;4
Stephen Crichton being held by the Springfield Police Department;
James Fisher-Harris being in a bar fight over British politics; and
Mitch Kenny suffering radiation poisoning.
This could all happen right?
Alternatively Melbourne could always go back to a different tried and true method:
Honestly though, my expectations are low for this one. The foreboding narrative of a Brisbane versus Penrith Grand Final has been strong for some time. This season’s good news story in the Warriors, as well as the Melbourne Storm just feel like the final plot point for the two teams before making way for the Grand Final.
The Panthers form this season hasn’t been as dominant as in previous seasons, but they have only suffered two defeats since their shock loss to the Wests Tigers back in round 9. Indeed the only loss the Panthers had to a team that finished in the top-8 this season was their round 1 loss to the Broncos.
Melbourne haven’t been as impressive this season, despite their ladder position after round 27. As has been the trend this season, we should know inside of the first 15 minutes which Melbourne Storm team has turned up. If the middle forwards can put pressure on the Penrith playmakers in defence, as well as gain metres with the ball, Melbourne could be a chance of breaking the spell that Penrith has over Adam Gee the Storm. If Harry Grant starts, rather than comes from the bench, his enthusiasm at dummy half and line speed will be crucial. I’ll be looking to see how involved Nick Meaney is too in attack. His work at the back against the Roosters was immense, and his linking play around Munster and Hughes gives Melbourne a chance down the edges.
The battle on the edges will probably decide this match. Penrith have a potent centre pairing in Tago and Stephen Crichton, with both players scoring multiple tries against Melbourne in recent matches. A lot of the defensive responsibility will fall on Marion Seve and Justin Olam. While Seve has looked solid, Olam did appear shaky at times against the Roosters in what was his second NRL match since being dropped in July. Olam has scored only one try (the penalty try in the 2020 Grand Final) in nine appearances against the Panthers.
I suspect I will be writing about a Melbourne Storm loss after Friday night, but stranger things have happened in rugby league.
C’mon Melbourne and also Up The Wahs on Saturday night.
This was just before my 18th birthday, so I never got the chance to “vote out” Jeff Kennett. My local electorate didn’t change hands that election, but it did set the city on a path that ended up with a certain stadium being redeveloped over the next two decades.
We don’t talk about that game either.
Only because it was on as I was leaving the office for the day. I’m not that much of a trainspotter to watch the entire session either.
Wait, this one is more likely than not.