S28E03 Preview – GF Rematch

Back in action to really start the season

Mar 19, 2025

Five months on from the 2024 NRL Grand Final the reigning premiers come to Melbourne on the back of one of the biggest NRL upsets in the last decade.

Grand Final rematches

Ah the hype of a Grand Final rematch. The first meeting of the previous season’s decider is something fans mark in their calendars, but for the players is it really a big deal? Going through Melbourne’s history there are a few occasions where the rematch lived up to the hype, but it’s a funny one. Does it really matter when the match is in March rather than when the stakes are higher during the finals?

A couple of seasons ago I took a brief look at those occasions when Melbourne faced off against the reigning premiers. A similar subset of Melbourne’s canon are the Grand Final rematches.

2000

70–10 & 4–50.

I’ve covered the first match against the Dragons in depth last year, and briefly touched on that return match at Wollongong when Melbourne were thrashed while missing four NSW origin players. That match was the first time Melbourne had conceded 50 points and is just one of four occasions the club has conceded 50+ in a NRL match.

2007

From that piece about matches against the reigning premiers:

A fired up Melbourne would beat the Brisbane Broncos three times during the 2007 season. In April at Suncorp Stadium, Melbourne won 28–18 with Billy Slater scoring a double. At Olympic Park in August, the Storm won a fiery contest 14–6 with that match more remembered for Petero Civoniceva whinging about grapple tackles both on the field and afterwards. Melbourne would end the Broncos reign as premiers with a massive 40–0 win at Olympic Park in the first week of the finals with Steve Turner scoring a hat trick.

2008

Of all the matches I’ve revisited here, I am yet to look at any of the 2008 season matches. Melbourne faced off against the conquered 2007 runners-up Manly three times in 2008. The first meeting was at a windy Olympic Park in April, with the Storm winning 26–4 on the back of a man of the match performance from Billy Slater.1 The fullback was in sublime form early in 2008 and would go on to be awarded the Golden Boot.

Later that year, Melbourne would back up to win 16–10 at #FortressShithole in round 22. In a high intensity clash, the match saw Michael Crocker punch on with Brent Kite early, Melbourne scored first and went to the sheds up 10–6 at half time following a brilliant try when Cronk and Slater combined in the middle to send Israel Folau across the line out wide. Melbourne extended their advantage through a try to Cronk early in the second half, hanging on for the win with a supreme defensive effort.

Of course the third meeting was the 2008 Grand Final…

2009

Melbourne reversed the result in the first meeting between the teams in 2009, winning 22–8 on the peninsula, but late in the season Manly had their first and only win at the Graveyard. That 20–16 win was turned around by the Storm just three weeks later in a qualifying final at the Docklands, the Storm running riot to win 40–12 on the back of four tries to Billy Slater.

2010

Of all of the away trips Melbourne made after April 2010, the trip to Parramatta for the rematch against the Eels was the most acrimonious.

Billy Slater was sent to the sin bin for retaliating to a headbutt from notorious future criminal Jarryd Hayne, the future salary cap cheating Eels getting the better of the Storm 24–10.

2013

Melbourne faced off twice against the Bulldogs in 2013 — the first meeting at AAMI Park came in round 3 which was Ryan Hoffman’s 200th match for the Storm. Melbourne led by Cooper Cronk led 10–0 at half time, but it was a moment early in the second half that was the lingering controversy. Billy Slater took a high ball under pressure from David Klemmer, with the Bulldogs forward copping a stray boot in the neck. Slater was put on report but escaped sanction. The visitors pushed Melbourne hard to the end, but the Storm won the day 22–18.

The return match was scheduled in the NRL’s infinite wisdom for round 18 at Homebush, smack bang in the middle of #wrongpriorities season. Melbourne were held scoreless for the first time since the 2008 Grand Final, with a number of controversial moments going against the Storm.2

2017

A late try to James Segeyaro for Cronulla denied the notoriety of a tryless match at AAMI Park. The Sharks ending Melbourne’s five match winning streak to start the 2017 season to win 11–2 in wet and windy conditions. Melbourne had led 2–0 at half time, then fell behind 3–2 before an error by Billy Slater led to the try.3

In the return match at Cronulla in June, a late try to Felise Kaufusi, his second of the night,4 saw the Storm win 18–13 in another weather-affected match.

2018

Melbourne took their eighth win in a row against the Cowboys in round 12 of the 2018 season, taking a 7–6 win in Townsville. Cameron Smith scored the Storm’s only try deep in the first half, then scoring a penalty after half time. Cameron Munster breaking the tie in the 72nd minute, the Storm holding on for a tight win.5

2019

Melbourne would face off against the Roosters three times in 2019 after the Sydney club won the 2018 decider. The first match at AAMI Park was a roller coaster of emotions. The visitor went out to a 20–0 lead inside the first 30 minutes, before a Josh Addo-Carr try just before half time narrowed the gap. It would be three straight tries to Melbourne to level the scores within 10 minutes of half time. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves was lucky to stay on the field late in the game for a tackle that sparked a melee. Both teams missed field goal attempts in regulation time, but just one minute into golden point, Latrell Mitchell stole the match with a field goal from outside of 40m for a 21–20 win.

The second meeting was the third in the Adelaide Oval trilogy between these teams, Melbourne winning 14–12 after a tryless second half. Come September the Roosters would end Melbourne’s 2019 season at the ShitCG taking a 14–6 win in the preliminary final to progress to the 2019 Grand Final.

2021

In round 3 Melbourne travelled to Penrith and took an early lead through a Brandon Smith try from dummy half, and were up 10–6 until a late converted try to Kurt Capewell secured the win for the Panthers.6

That loss was Melbourne’s last until August, with the return match in round 20 Melbourne’s 16th straight in the streak during the 2021 season. Played behind closed doors at Suncorp Stadium, the Storm put an under-manned second placed Panthers to the sword to win 37–10. Dean Ieremia scored a hat trick, with the Storm keeping a clean sheet until the 72nd minute.

The final meeting in 2021 was the preliminary final at Suncorp Stadium. Injuries in the first half to Christian Welch and Brandon Smith proved costly with Melbourne unable to mount a comeback against the Panthers tight swarming defence as allowed by a certain referee.7

NRL Preliminary Final - Storm v Panthers

Stat attack

This will be Melbourne’s first home match on 20 March, having played three matches on this date all outside Victoria. The Storm lost to the Broncos in 2009, beat the Knights in Newcastle the following year, then defeated the Warriors in 2016.
Melbourne have won six of the ten first meeting Grand Final rematches the following season over the years.
Since 2020, Melbourne have won eight of 15 matches when Adam Gee has the whistle, losing seven straight matches in 2022-2023. The only Storm match Gee controlled last year was won 18–12 against Newcastle at AAMI Park.
That seven match losing streak included three straight matches against Penrith in 2023.
Since the removal of the second referee, Penrith have lost just once from 21 matches when Adam Gee is the referee. Their only defeat being the massive upset loss against the Wests Tigers in Bathurst in 2023.
Since the 2020 Grand Final, Penrith have won seven of the 11 matches between the two teams.
Penrith have only won once at AAMI Park, winning just four of 21 matches in Victoria.

Team line-up

Ryan Papenhuyzen
Grant Anderson
Jack Howarth
Nick Meaney
Xavier Coates
Cameron Munster
Jahrome Hughes (150th Storm match)
Stefano Utoikamanu
Harry Grant ©
Josh King
Shawn Blore
Eliesa Katoa
Trent Loeiro
Tyran Wishart
Alec MacDonald
Tui Kamikamica
~~Lazarus Vaalepu~~
Bronson Garlick
~~Joe Chan~~
Kane Bradley
~~Coby Williamson~~
Nelson Asofa-Solomona

Referee: Adam Gee (Bunker: Chris Butler)

Preview

Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers
— AAMI Park, 8:00pm Thursday 20 March 2025

The big man is back following his ban in the preliminary final. Would he have made a difference in the 2024 Grand Final?

Asofa-Solomona’s return pushes big Lazarus Vaalepu out of the squad that was named on Tuesday. It was almost déjà vu from early last season for NAS after he was cited but fortunately not suspended via a hip drop tackle while playing in the Queensland Cup.

Also missing this week will be Will Warbrick who popped up on the injury report with a concussion. In his place on the right wing will be Grant Anderson for his first NRL action for the season after scoring two tries for the Sunshine Coast Falcons in their win over the PNG Hunters last weekend. That was the sum of Melbourne’s changes, with a number of first grade quality players heading away to play in the NSW and Queensland Cup competitions instead.

For the Panthers, Dylan Edwards is out with a groin injury suffered in Penrith’s shock loss to the Roosters. His named replacement was to be Daine Laurie, but he was also ruled out due to injury. Instead checks notes Thomas Jenkins will play for the visitors. Jenkins made his NRL debut back in 2022 with the Panthers, played a further five games in 2023 before shifting to the Knights in 2024 where he played another five NRL matches on the wing. Isaiah Papali’i returns for Penrith and will come off the bench after missing last week. Without Jarome Luai in 2025, Jack Cole will partner Nathan Cleary in the halves for the Panthers, with only minimal change otherwise from last year’s Grand Final squad.

As explored last year, Melbourne do have a slightly worse winning percentage than normal when coming back from a bye. It wasn’t statistically great though, so that shouldn’t really be a factor on Thursday night. What will be a factor though as always when playing Penrith in the V’landysball era — Adam Gee. Melbourne were fortunate not to endure Gee in 2024 in any of the important matches at the end of the season, instead copping the lottery of Ashley Klein. Whether Gee reverts to his regular type (affording latitude in certain interpretations while imposing himself to change momentum) or can control the match fairly is going to be an interesting watch. Unfortunately I foresee Ref Watch coming in the review.

For Melbourne to win they just need to follow the plan. Restrict the space and time that Cleary has with the ball, use the swarm defence and when necessary use the slide defensive structure perfected under Craig Bellamy. It’s taking scoring opportunities though with the ball that Melbourne needs to improve upon against the Panthers. Tyran Wishart and Alec McDonald will be important in their roles coming off the bench. Mostly though, Harry Grant and Jahrome Hughes will need to be the players that we know that they can be. If they can provide Cameron Munster and Ryan Papenhuyzen with the ball at the right times, Melbourne have enough points in them to beat the Panthers. It’s just a matter of putting things together and not playing panic football.

I expect that the Panthers will target Melbourne around the middle of the field early, before shifting wider to target Nick Meaney and Grant Anderson as the match progresses. Heavily marking Izack Tago and limiting the running ability of Brian To’o will be high priorities.

The weather forecast for Thursday in Melbourne looks to be lousy Smarch weather. Wind, showers and possible (let’s make that likely) thunderstorms developing. If you watched the aftermath of the rainy conditions of the AusGP last weekend, I’m expecting similar conditions. It’s going to be a time. Bring a jacket.

What else is going on?

The Storm Jersey Flegg Cup squad have started the season with back-to-back wins and will be looking to extend that streak against the Wests Tigers on Saturday afternoon at Seabrook Reserve (4pm AEDT kickoff). That match follows the SG Ball Cup match (2pm AEDT kickoff) between the Storm and the Raiders, which sees both teams in the top five after six rounds. Meanwhile the HM Cup squad return to action still seeking their first win of the season, this time facing off against the Central Coast Roosters on Saturday.

There’s very winnable games for the Sunshine Coast Falcons and Brisbane Tigers in the Queensland Cup this week. The Falcons travel to Toowoomba on Saturday afternoon (6:30pm AEDT kickoff) to play the Clydesdales. I expect a couple of Storm players to be late changes to that squad. On Sunday evening (6pm AEDT kickoff) the Tigers host the Ipswich Jets with a strong Storm flavour named to play in the backline for the home team. The Tigers had a draw last week so will be looking to get their first win of the season.

In the NSW Cup, the Bears travel to Lidcome Oval on Saturday to play Wests Magpies (2pm AEDT kickoff). Norths have lost their first two matches this season, and this match might already be a must win for the Bears.