S27E31 Preview – Daring to dream

The quest for seven in Melbourne's 11th NRL Grand Final

Oct 02, 2024

Ah Grand Final week. Forget #wrongpriorities this is what the players play for. The one thing that rugby league fans crave most — a chance at a premiership.

Melbourne are seeking premiership seven, while Penrith are still chasing history in their fifth consecutive Grand Final, eyeing off premiership number four and their sixth overall.

The rest of the competition is sitting on the sidelines as Melbourne try to do what others from NSW and Queensland have failed to do: beat Penrith in a Grand Final.1

This rugby league Christmas has a bumper edition of the weekly preview. If you’re reading this via email, apologies for the length.

NRL Grand Final Power Rankings

This will be the 23rd time I’ve attended an NRL Grand Final, having only missed 1998, 2010,2 and the 2020 and 2021 pandemic deciders. I would have attended in 2020 had a certain politician allowed so-called filthy Victorians into The Bad Place, but alas.

Each year I’ve updated my power rankings in an effort to try and keep an objective rating of each game on entertainment value, magic moments, replay ability, overall narrative and other factors.3

This year I noticed that former Big League editor Maria Recouvreur has done a similar list for News Corp’s Code Sports, and well, let’s say I disagree. So rather than looking back at an individual Storm match this week, here’s my curated power rankings that I first put together in 2014.4

Note: I’ve put Maria’s rankings in brackets.

2000 — Brisbane Broncos 14–6 Sydney Roosters (19th)

An objectively boring match. The Roosters offered little and the Broncos were far too good for them. While the final score seems close, it really wasn’t. If you need a cure for insomnia, just watch this match.

2008 — Manly Warringah Sea Eagles 40–0 Melbourne Storm (5th)

Only one fanbase actually enjoys this match and despite others liking the schadenfreude (especially since April 2010), this is just a bludger of a game. Yes it was reasonably close at half time, but the second half proved that was an illusion.

1998 — Brisbane Broncos 38–12 Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (not ranked)

Coming from tenth on the ladder, the Bulldogs played their Grand Final the week before against Parramatta in an epic preliminary final. Over-matched against a Broncos team without a salary cap, the Dogs were held scoreless during the second half in the last Grand Final played at the old SFS.

2022 — Penrith Panthers 28–12 Parramatta Eels (25th)

Parramatta shouldn’t have been there and it showed. Blown away in the first half, their only points came in the final five minutes.

2014 — South Sydney Rabbitohs 30–6 Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (8th)

Hashtag ding ding. The NRL allowed the Grand Final to be hijacked and turned into a Souths wankfest. It was gross. Sam Burgess played the match despite having a concussion that should have seen him off the field. Another Souths player facing criminal charges should never have played. The only redeeming feature was Greg Inglis scoring the final try.

2018 — Sydney Roosters 21–6 Melbourne Storm (10th)

Imagine playing a Grand Final with 12 fit players on the field and still winning. If only Melbourne hadn’t fallen for the gambit by the Roosters to play Cooper Cronk. Munster’s twin sin bins a fair summary of how things went for the Storm.

2010 — St George-Illawarra 32–8 Sydney Roosters (15th)

Wait, they actually played a Grand Final in 2010? Oh Wayne Bennett coached a team that wasn’t salary cap compliant to another premiership. Well that checks out.

2011 — Manly Warringah Sea Eagles 24–10 New Zealand Warriors (20th)

Let’s Gone Warriors… until the bandwagon broke down. Might have been a different game had George Rose been sent off in the first half, or if the Warriors hadn’t had a couple of other decisions go against them.

2021 — Penrith Panthers 14–12 South Sydney Rabbitohs (13th)

An objectively better game than some of the others ranked higher by others, but it still is just meh. How things might be different if Adam Reynolds had converted Alex Johnson’s late try.

2002 — Sydney Roosters 30–8 New Zealand Warriors (17th)

I love my footy! I’m just waiting for some POWER.

Both teams struggled in the first half and while the Warriors started the second half well, they couldn’t handle the Roosters who finished far stronger.

2020 — Melbourne Storm 26–20 Penrith Panthers (23rd)

I honestly feel like the Panthers are on top.
Hold your breath again, Panther fans. Hold your breath. Hold your breath

Suck it Gus. Melbourne routed the Panthers in the first half and Ryan Papenhuyzen’s magic try from a scrum ended the match as a contest early in the second half. Penrith attempted a comeback, but it was moot.

2012 — Melbourne Storm 14–4 Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (18th)

A Melbourne masterclass of defence. James Graham should have been sent off for his bite on Billy Slater. No points in the second half in what was a tense battle until the final whistle.

2006 — Brisbane Broncos 15–8 Melbourne Storm (11th)

#SimpkinsIsADickhead. Fuck this game.

2017 — Melbourne Storm 34–6 North Queensland Cowboys (24th)

Nearest thing to rugby league perfection from Melbourne. Some great tries and Melbourne’s big three absolutely dominant.

2007 — Melbourne Storm 34–8 Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (21st)

It was 10–4 at half time before Melbourne monstered and crushed Manly to make up for their loss the year before. Two late tries blew out the score, but sent the Storm fans into ecstasy.

2019 — Sydney Roosters 14–8 Canberra Raiders (6th)

Six again. Or not. Controversy. The Ben Cummins call wasn’t the only controversial moment. Canberra probably should have taken their chances and won this one, but didn’t.

2001 — Newcastle Knights 30–24 Parramatta Eels (12th)

A good old-fashioned ambush meets a monumental Parra choke-job. Newcastle led 24–0 at half time against a petrified Parramatta squad. The final score make it seem close, but this ranks highly mostly because of the epic fail from the Eels.

2013 — Sydney Roosters 26–18 Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (16th)

This Grand Final rates higher than others in my memory even if both teams are loathsome. DCE won the Clive Churchill Medal in a losing team which was a great effort. I had forgotten about the forward pass, but ooft.

2016 — Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks 14–12 Melbourne Storm (9th)

Sigh. This might have been higher up my list if Will Chambers had passed the ball. This is the Grand Final that got away from Melbourne and the 2017 victory mostly helps Storm fans to forget.

2009 — Melbourne Storm 23–16 Parramatta Eels (22nd)

That this premiership vanished from the records doesn’t take away from how good this game was. Melbourne’s 10–0 half time lead was cut to just four points almost immediately after the break, before two tries gave the Storm a nice lead that was almost reeled in when Fui Fui Moi Moi’s alleged try brought the Eels within six points. To those that rate this Grand Final lower, a rewatch might be in order.

2005 — Wests Tigers 30–16 North Queensland Cowboys (4th)

The Benji Marshall flick pass to Pat Richards is iconic, but the rest of this game between two non-offensive teams was one of the better ones. The Cowboys had chances late to snatch this one too, with the final score not reflective of the match.

2023 — Penrith Panthers 26–24 Brisbane Broncos (3rd)

Brisbane bottling it in an NRL Grand Final. There’s not many better things to witness. They had this in the bag up 16 points with 20 minutes to play. Ezra Mam had the Clive Churchill Medal around his neck. The Penrith supremacy was over. The Panthers were beaten and broken… until Nathan Cleary’s burst.

2004 — Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs 16–13 Sydney Roosters (7th)

The tension, the drama, the buzz. This match is criminally underrated by many. There’s so many iconic moments that culminate in Andrew Ryan’s tackle to force an error from Mick Crocker in the final seconds.

1999 — Melbourne Storm 20–18 St George-Illawarra Dragons (14th)

A penalty try decided by video referee Chris Ward and referee Bill Harrigan. St Merge choking away a lead when Anthony Mundine went for individual glory and lost the ball trying to score. The Nathan Blacklock try. 107,999 people. Scoreless in the first half, Melbourne roared back to win in what was at that time the biggest comeback in a Grand Final.

The hooter has gone! Melbourne has won it! Melbourne has won the Grand Final! A sporting miracle!

2003 — Penrith Panthers 18–6 Sydney Roosters (2nd)

Reigning premiers versus minor premiers. Rain throughout. Penrith scored a long-range try for the only points of the first half. The Roosters score and then Todd Byrne is clear down the left wing. Scott Sattler’s tackle. Penrith score through Luke Priddis and look for field goals to close it out, but Priddis throws it out to Luke Rooney to seal the result.

2015 — North Queensland Cowboys 17–16 Brisbane Broncos (1st)

Michael Morgan. Kyle Feldt. JT misses. Ben Hunt drops the ball. Golden point field goal. Game over and Brisbane lose for the first time in a Grand Final. What more do you want? On a sticky night in The Bad Place the Queensland teams put on an epic decider for the ages.5

Agree? Disagree? Leave a comment with your rankings.

Stat attack

This will be the first time Melbourne have played a match on 6 October. Melbourne’s overall record in NRL matches played in October is five wins and three losses.
Melbourne have played 29 matches at ~~Accor~~ Stadium Australia, for 19 wins. Since the 2020 NRL Grand Final, the Storm have won four of six visits to Homebush, losing to Souths in 2022 and last year’s preliminary final against Penrith.
Since facing off in the 2020 Grand Final, Melbourne have struggled against the Panthers, with the wins during the regular season this year ending a streak of three straight losses. Overall Melbourne have won four of the last 10 matches between these teams, and 31 of the 46 matches overall.
This is the fourth finals match between Melbourne and Penrith, with Penrith holding a two wins to one advantage.
Four Melbourne players: Cameron Munster (4), Christian Welch (3), Ryan Papenhuyzen and Jahrome Hughes (both 1) have played in previous NRL Grand Finals.
Jahrome Hughes will make his 150th NRL appearance in the Grand Final. He made his debut with the Gold Coast Titans in 2013, played one match with the North Queensland Cowboys before moving to the Storm where he’s played 147 matches scoring 61 tries.
Ashley Klein has refereed eight previous matches between these teams. As the sole referee, both teams have won two matches each.
Since the resumption of the 2020 season, Melbourne have lost seven of 23 matches in which Klein has had the whistle. Penrith have lost five of 21 matches under Klein in the same period of time. Klein was the referee for the 2022 NRL Grand Final.
This season Klein has refereed four Penrith matches (Rd 2, 24, QF, and PF); and four Melbourne matches (Rd 5, 7, 12, and 24).
Penrith won four of the seven matches in which they wore their pink jersey. Melbourne won 10 of 12 matches wearing their 2024 home jersey.

Team line-up

Ryan Papenhuyzen
Will Warbrick
Jack Howarth
Nick Meaney
Xavier Coates
Cameron Munster
Jahrome Hughes (150th NRL match)
Tui Kamikamica
Harry Grant ©
Josh King
Shawn Blore
Eliesa Katoa
Trent Loeiro
Tyran Wishart
Christian Welch
Lazarus Vaalepu
Alec MacDonald
Grant Anderson
Joe Chan
Kane Bradley
Tepai Moeroa
Sualauvi Fa’alogo

Referee: Ashley Klein (Bunker: Grant Atkins)

Preview

Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers
— Accor Stadium, 19:30pm Sunday 6 October 2024

Grand Final week runs the gamut of emotions as the narrative focus spotlights the two combatants and the media talk narrows.

Saturday

Penrith let Cronulla finally score against them. The Sharks even managed a try that probably should have been disallowed. Good for them. Ivan Cleary blew up in the post match about an obstruction call against his Prefects. That won’t affect the Grand Final and the way it’s officiated at all right?

Sunday

Nick Campton set the tone at the ABC:

Melbourne must overcome this monster they inadvertently brought to life, while Penrith, having conquered every inch of this sport, are right back where they started, staring their creator in the eye.
Either way, this grand final will be the capstone on an era.

Monday

Of course Melbourne were going to fight Nelson Asofa-Solomona’s ridiculous grade three careless high tackle charge. Of course they were always going to lose.

Judiciary chair Geoffrey Bellew is now giving instructions. He told panel members Bob Lindner and Paul Simpkins that it was up to them to determine the grading of the tackle based upon the evidence

Whatever it cost to brief Nick Ghabar and fly NAS and Frank Ponissi to The Bad Place to front up at League Central was wasted the moment that particular panel was convened.6

However I still think it’s odd that the NRL’s hired legal counsel is providing evidence during the hearing rather than both parties questioning the evidence provided by the person responsible for laying the charges — General Bias. Luke Patten should have been the one in the hot seat to justify why the charge is a grade three and not have the onus on the accused to prove why a downgrade was required. Rugby league “justice” is a weird concept.

At least this time the club didn’t defame anyone.7

Five matches, even with NAS’s record does seem excessive. It put him on the list of longest Melbourne Storm suspensions, tied in eighth place with Stephen Kearney’s 1999 suspension for a dangerous throw.

Tuesday

From the review of last time Melbourne played the Panthers:

That’s the thing when you know that Ashley Klein is the referee. You know that #Kleined is a state of existence. It’s going to happen and you can’t stop it, only wait for the next dodgy decision to instead go your way. I’m not sure that there’s a fan base that enjoys having their game officiated by Klein, but you know that for most of the time, everyone is having a bad time.

Atkins as the Bunker official is also a little concerning.

Someone at NRL.com got a little excited for the team lists:

Tui Kamikamica was named in the eight jersey for Melbourne with Lazarus Vaalepu coming on to the bench. That will be Melbourne’s likely change, although I was keen for the Storm to mess around with the NRL and name Sua Fa’alogo in the eight jersey to keep everyone guessing until Saturday evening.

Whether Vaalepu plays though will remain to be seen. He didn’t take the field in the round 24 match at Penrith, and has played just 115 minutes of first grade this season in his six appearances. Only Scott Anderson (9 in 2008), Dane Nielsen (11 in 2009), Nicho Hynes (11 in 2020),8 Ryan Tandy (13 in 2009), Curtis Scott (14 in 2017), Brodie Croft (16 in 2018), and Jack Howarth (16 in 2024)9 had less than 20 matches of experience going into a Storm Grand Final team.

It wouldn’t surprise me if Melbourne go with Joe Chan instead of Vaalepu. Either way it’s a big call to make up against a Panthers forward pack that contains Moses Leota and James Fisher-Harris.

My other thought on the forward pack rotation for Melbourne revolves around Christian Welch who only played 10 minutes last week. He might start instead of Kamikamica to allow Tui to continue with his role during the middle part of matches. Welch starting would allow the Queenslander to put pressure on Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai, especially on kicks. While Melbourne fell into the trap laid by Cooper Cronk back in the 2018 decider, I can’t see Bellyache letting Cleary’s banged up body being a distraction, but I’m sure the players will be reminded to be very physical when tackling him.

Over at Penrith their only concern is whether Scott Sorensen will be fit to play after missing the last two matches with a hamstring injury. It would be a big call to put him in after missing a month of footy.

Cameron Munster had the monkey playing cymbals in his head while talking to NRL.com.

Wednesday

Apparently Liam Martin and Cameron Munster are “in a one-sided feud.” Cool.

Cocaine Bear? The sooner the Storm ditch North Sydney, the better.10

This profile on Ryan Papenhuyzen was a good read.

Melbourne had a big night at the Dally M Awards. Jahrome Hughes took out the Dally M Medal, the sixth time a Storm player has taken out the game’s top award. Thankfully the moronic decision to charge Hughes and have Melbourne reluctantly accept a suspension earlier in the season didn’t cost him the medal, same with his week’s rest in round 26.

Hughes would make the Dally M Team of the Year at halfback, with Harry Grant at hooker (for the second time) and Eli Katoa in the second row. The haka led by Will Warbrick to honour Hughes at the end of the night was amazing. Chills. What a great young person Warbrick is.

Craig Bellamy won his SEVENTH Dally M Coach of the Year award. He is simply the best. Xavier Coates won the Dally M Try of the Year and the Peter Frilingos Headline Moment for his try against the Warriors in round 2.

Grand Final thoughts

Am I going on Sunday night hoping the Storm win? Yes.

Am I expecting Melbourne to lose? Yes.

As we’ve seen in the past two years, the Grand Final is Penrith’s to lose until they do.

They’re going to throw a thousand block plays at Melbourne on the edges and Leota and Fisher-Harris are going to try and beat up the Storm in the middle.

To win Melbourne must score in the first half.11 Any lead at the break will be fantastic. If the Storm head to the sheds pointless, the game will be as good as over. Attacking the Panthers strengths might be a bold strategy, but it’s one that could work. Penrith’s run metres numbers rely on Brian To’o taking the first hit up after the kick return. So kicking at him and not Dylan Edwards might be a fruitful option. Especially given Edwards is beat up already. Having a set line is imperative to this goal.

The rest of the stats sees both teams fairly evenly matched. Second phase play with offloads could be important, but stopping them on defence for Melbourne is a must. Harry Grant will be very important to Melbourne’s prospects. He must resist playing panic football like he was guilty of at times in 2023, instead he needs to pick and chose the right moments to run from dummy half and engage the markers to create space for Jahrome Hughes and Cameron Munster.

As always, discipline, attitude and effort in defence is what will win the game. The stats above, while fun to look at, probably don’t mean much in isolation. Both teams are evenly matched because they literally are the best two teams in the competition.

I’m sure the folk over at Rugby League Eye Test and Rugby League Writers will be able to break down the numbers and vision in their analysis. Indeed Jason’s analysis of the halfbacks at RLW is superb.

On vibes alone, Penrith are vulnerable and Melbourne might just have enough tools to dismantle their dynasty even without NAS. I hope so anyway. My tip for the Clive Churchill Medal is Cameron Munster apropos of nothing in particular, other than those that decide the award don’t often pick players who aren’t eligible to play for Australia. I’d love for there to be zero ref drama and Melbourne winning by double figures, but I fully expect that the football gods won’t be so willing to see that.

Programming note

Win or lose there will be a review here. It won’t come through until the middle of next week at the earliest as I will be travelling and jubilant/forlorn on Monday. How much of the replay I watch will be dictated by the score.

The club’s official awards are on Tuesday night – Jahrome Hughes should win his second Cameron Smith ~~Player of the Year Award~~ Medal12 in a canter. Jack Howarth should win the Billy Slater Rookie of the Year Award, Tyran Wishart or Grant Anderson should win Most Improved. Xavier Coates has had Try of the Year sown up since S27E02. The Grand Final review post will have a wrap up of that night.13

Jahrome Hughes has easily won the Storm Machine Player of the Year. Like last season, player report cards and a season review posts will feature in October.

Dear Reader — To each subscriber, follower and those that interact with this little project, thank you. Knowing some people read these missives is always a thrill. I hope you can continue to excuse the typos, weird grammar, odd post schedule and all the other idiosyncrasies that come with these biweekly brain dumps.