S27E28 Preview – Jumping the Shark Redux
September anxiety commences for 2024
Another season in the books and Melbourne are through to a 24th finals campaign. The first hurdle are the Sharks who the Storm have faced in two1 previous finals matches.
S11E29 – Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks vs Melbourne Storm
A week after the famous 2008 semi-final win over the Broncos, Melbourne headed to Sydney to take on the Sharks at the old Sydney Football Stadium. Cooper Cronk would captain the Storm in the absence of the suspended Cameron Smith, with the halfback turning in a masterclass to send the Storm through to a third-straight NRL Grand Final.
In just the third minute, Cronk split the Sharks open from inside Melbourne’s half and his kick ahead bounced perfectly for Steve Turner to score in the right corner and Melbourne were off to a hot start.
Cronk was in everything for Melbourne, and the Sharks had no plan to stop him. Picking and choosing the right options, for Melbourne’s second try he had Billy Slater out the back, but gave it to the lead runner Israel Folau to score.
Cronulla looked poor after their week off, while Melbourne were a little clunky without Smith. Both teams were making plenty of errors in what was a fast first half, it was the weight of possession for the Storm and the ability of Melbourne’s defence to put pressure on Brett Kimmorley that made the difference.
Slater would often give Russell Aitkin a break at dummy half and it would be Adam Blair scoring his first NRL try to extend the lead to 16–0 five minutes from half time. Blair bashed through multiple defenders to slam the ball down next to the posts.
In the second half, Melbourne just kept defending through injury and fatigue and repeated sets on their line. They were running on empty at times, but kept up the pressure to work hard together as a team. It was championship qualities from the defending premiers, as the 20 minutes after half time was almost all defending from a Melbourne team desperate to get back to the Grand Final.
Momentum started to shift on the back of a massive kick from Cronk from inside Melbourne’s half that refused to go dead in-goal. Luke Covell dropped the ball and Melbourne looked to have grounded it for a possible try, but the ruling was a strip by the video referee. But on Melbourne’s first real attacking possession of the half, Cronk and Slater put Turner into space down the right wing, with Turner stepping inside to easily score his second try.
By full time Melbourne had outclassed Cronulla. Matt Geyer scored the 113th and final try of his career in the 73rd minute, ending a play that he started, finishing the work of Slater who unselfishly passed when he could have scored himself.
It was a gritty performance from the Storm, but it was overshadowed by the comments from Craig Bellamy and Brian Waldron in the post-match press conference.2
Cronulla – 0
Melbourne – 28 (Turner 3', 63', Folau 24', Blair 35', Geyer 73' tries; Turner 4/5 goals)
S21E28 – Melbourne Storm vs Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks
Ten years later and Melbourne and Cronulla faced off in another preliminary final, this time at AAMI Park, for what would be Billy Slater’s farewell game in Victoria. Like 2008, Melbourne were aiming to get back to the Grand Final for a third year in a row, while the Sharks were trying to return to the final weekend of the season after crashing out in the first week of the finals in 2017.
Cronulla came out fired up in defence early, but their ill-discipline got the better of them, with Melbourne taking an early 2–0 lead in the 5th minute.
That seemed to calm Melbourne, the points helped the Storm work into the match, with Jesse Bromwich playing especially well in the middle. The controversial moment of this match came in the 14th minute when Billy Slater bumped Sosaia Feki into touch to save a try. Slater was ruled on-field to have used a shoulder charge and was penalised and reported. That set up a weekend of hot takes before Slater was exonerated at the NRL Judiciary on the Tuesday night.
Slater was able to put that moment behind him during this match, a right flank raid from Melbourne in the 20th minute saw Felise Kaufusi offload for Slater whose inside ball to Brodie Croft had him stepping to score adjacent to the posts.
The Storm were relentless in this match. Melbourne’s forwards were getting over and through the line, while Cronulla looked fatigued and were ill-disciplined. Playing up-tempo footy, a shift to the right in possession had Slater beating Matt Moylan with a dummy to score following well timed passes from Cameron Smith, Cameron Munster and Croft.
Cronulla had a chance to score before halftime, but Slater and Kaufusi stopped Blayke Brailey just short of the line, with Slater then fielding a kick to stop their momentum. There was another moment late in the half when a bomb was not caught by Slater, but Melbourne regrouped forcing Luke Capewell over the sideline on their left edge. Capewell was playing out wide following injury to Feki, who had left the field with a shoulder injury.
That near miss refocused Melbourne who, on the back of a crusher penalty against public enemy number one Andrew Fifita, went down the field attacking on the right edge. The final play of the half had Smith kicking ahead for Slater to score as Melbourne played to the whistle. In back play, Fifita was picking a fight with Kenny Bromwich and Dale Finucane, after he had hit KBrom late and high. Smith saw the disjointed line from dummy half, his kick finding Slater wide open to score under the posts.
With a 20–0 lead, Cronulla had a try awarded just after half time by the officials on the field, but it was ruled out after Edrick Lee knocked on in the contest for a high ball. From there the second half devolved into a grinding, error-ridden match. In all it was kind of stress-free for Melbourne. Munster was doing Munster things and the 26,671 fans in attendance were going to go home happy, well those supporting Melbourne were.
Melbourne’s only points in the second half came via Smith’s boot in the 65th minute, after Jesse Ramien hit Slater high. That seemed to take any remaining sting out of the match. There was a consolation try to Luke Lewis in his final NRL match, with Melbourne disappointed to have left the visitors score. Josh Addo-Carr went close to scoring in the final ten minutes, but he was denied by the touch in-goal line.
Melbourne were the first team through to the 2018 NRL Grand Final, but we don’t need to talk about that particular match.
Melbourne – 22 (Slater 29', 40', Croft 20’ tries; C Smith 5/5 goals)
Cronulla – 6 (Lewis 69' try; Holmes 1/1 goals)
Stat attack
Melbourne have played three previous NRL finals matches on 14 September losing all three in Victoria. Those matches were the 2008 qualifying final against the Warriors, the 2014 elimination final against the Bulldogs, and the 2019 qualifying final against the Raiders.
Cronulla have won three of their 15 visits to AAMI Park, their win earlier this season ending a five match losing streak in Victoria.
The Sharks were one of the more successful visitors to Olympic Park, leaving The Graveyard with a victory on four of their eight visits.
Melbourne’s 54–10 win at AAMI Park last year against Cronulla was the only time that a team has scored 50+ points in this fixture.
Only Ryan Papenhuyzen (3, including one 2-point) and Cameron Munster (4) have scored field goals for Melbourne, but have not kicked any this season. Nicho Hynes and Daniel Atkinson (2) have both kicked field goals for Cronulla this season.
Nicho Hynes has played two matches against Melbourne without tasting victory since joining Cronulla. After featuring in 31 wins for Melbourne in 36 appearances, he’s playing in 39 wins from 61 matches for the Sharks.
Nick Meaney requires eight more points to pass 800 career points.
Toby Rudolf will play his 100th NRL match for Cronulla.
Team line-up
Ryan Papenhuyzen
Will Warbrick
Jack Howarth
Nick Meaney
Xavier Coates
Cameron Munster
Jahrome Hughes
Nelson Asofa-Solomona
Harry Grant ©
Josh King
Shawn Blore
Eliesa Katoa
Trent Loeiro
Tyran Wishart
Christian Welch
Tui Kamikamica
Alec MacDonald
Grant Anderson
Lazarus Vaalepu
Kane Bradley
Joe Chan
Ativalu Lisati
Referee: Gerard Sutton (Bunker: Chris Butler)
Preview
Melbourne Storm vs Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks
— AAMI Park, 4:05pm Saturday 14 September 2024
Will admit to procrastinating about this preview all week. Team list Tuesday came and went just as expected for Melbourne. Ryan Papenhuyzen is back for Sua Fa’alogo with the fullbacks trading injuries. Christian Welch returns to the bench after missing last week with an infection in place of Lazarus Vaalepu.
Listening to the injury report it seems like Paps should be right to go after the injury he picked up against the Cowboys. Fa’alogo meanwhile will be out for at least a couple of weeks with his hamstring strain, while Bronson Garlick could finally return from injury for the Bears this week.
Even the choice of referee was a bit of a damp squib. Gerard Sutton has controlled three Melbourne matches this year, with the Storm winning all three. Melbourne only had him once in 2023, and since 2020 have lost only three matches from the 19 matches played under him.
Cronulla meanwhile stayed in the top four for almost the entire season, not dropping out despite their run of six defeats from eight matches through the middle of the year. Since then they’ve only lost once against the Warriors and defeated Manly last weekend. To say Cronulla had a soft draw in 2024 is a low-hanging fruit, but you can only win the games you’re scheduled to play. Their win against Melbourne at AAMI Park back in May was a match played without Jahrome Hughes, Ryan Papenhuyzen and Xavier Coates for Melbourne, while Nicho Hynes missed for the Sharks. It was frustrating and dumb,3 definitely one of those games that doesn’t really mean much come finals time.
For the visitors their forward pack is bolstered by the return of Oregon Kaufusi, but other than that it’s pretty much business as usual.
It feels like this match is the least interesting from a non-biased perspective, however it could be the most finals like. There is a minor rivalry between these teams given the shithousery displayed over the years from the denizens of The Swamp, but in a way the Sharks are a reflection of their coach at the moment — a blank void. Whether the visitors can quieten the crowd and lull Melbourne into playing panic football will be the test. Melbourne need to focus on their processes this week. Work over the Sharks on the edges, tire out their middles and pressure Hynes into errors. I’d be looking for the markers to disrupt Blayke Brailey at dummy half wherever possible, and by the time Tyran Wishart comes on that the Storm are able to find space to work in the middle of the field.
Would love to see a big game from Melbourne’s middle forwards with Nelson Asofa-Solomona and Josh King matching up well against their counterparts. There’s a big role for Tui Kamikamica and Alec MacDonald to gain ground off the bench, but maintain discipline in defence when they come on to the field.
I’m hoping for a fun afternoon at AAMI Park. The forecast for Saturday isn’t great, so expect a close and potentially fumbly game. I would love it if Melbourne were able to rack up a first half lead and strangle the Sharks out of the match in the second half like in the two preliminary finals showcased from 2008 and 2018, but realistically this could be a tight affair with a margin of less than 10 points the final result.
What else is going on?
North Sydney will be up against the Newtown Jets in the NSW Cup major semi final at Leichhardt Oval on Sunday (kick off 5pm). Bronson Garlick could play, and I’d expect that Dean Ieremia, Tepai Moeroa and Ativalu Lisati might all be available for the Bears. A win will put Norths straight through to the Grand Final, while a loss will see them face the winner of the other semi final between the Raiders and Panthers.
In the other NRL finals this weekend, whoever wins out of the Roosters and Panthers will be interesting to see. Can’t say that I could predict a winner at this stage, but I do know that the competition is Penrith’s to lose until they do. In the two elimination finals, I’d expect the Cowboys to easily defeat the Knights, while on Sunday at Accor Stadium I hope the Bulldogs can reverse their form over the last couple of weeks against Manly.
Should Melbourne win that would put the Storm on the side of the draw with the loser of Roosters/Penrith and the winner of Bulldogs/Manly to likely play on Friday 27 September at AAMI Park, while a loss this week puts the Storm up against the winner of the Cowboys/Knights match.
Excluding the NRL Grand Final.
Comments which the club were fined by the NRL and Bellamy and Waldron were sued for defamation by the members of the NRL Judiciary panel.
Hi Grant Atkins.