“remember 1999”
Trying to find some positives out of that loss to Brisbane was pretty tough but to get that message in the sheds from 'Boofa' Geyer provided perspective and a reality check.
I am still really positive about the improvement in us and what we can achieve.
We have shown resilience all year
Like 1999 (and 2008) Melbourne will be facing a sudden death semi final after losing a week one final. In both of those finals campaigns, Melbourne were able to recover and progress to the Grand Final.
As much as I love to remember 1999, we’ll soon see how much resilience this iteration of the Melbourne Storm actually has this week, but all this positivity may require some semblance of balance:
No old games to remember this week, as the goo inside my head has been feasted upon. But if Boofa does want us to remember 1999, who am I to argue… (apologies for the poor quality video)
Editor’s note: Thank you NRL Throwbacks on YouTube for posting this:
Stat pack
Melbourne have never played on 15 September (or 16 September had this game been scheduled for the Saturday instead). Melbourne have played three games on 14 September before, but we don’t need to recall the details of those three losses.
The Roosters have played Melbourne in four previous finals matches, winning three of those matches, including the only meeting in Victoria back in 1998. Melbourne’s only win was the 2015 qualifying final at the old SFS.
Since moving to the current finals system in 2012, six teams have been #TeamStraightSets🎾 including Melbourne in 2013. Parramatta (2017 and 2020) is the only team to be bundled out twice after finishing in the top four, while Manly (2014), Roosters (2020) and Cronulla (2022) are the other teams.
Melbourne have a mixed record when attempting to defeat teams for a third time in one season, having failed to do so against Brisbane in 2006, Manly in 2008, Souths and Newcastle in 2013. In 2016 and 2017 the Storm were able to defeat the Cowboys three times, and also get the better of the Broncos in 2017.
In the match after being held scoreless (where the next game wasn’t the next season), Melbourne have a 50% winning record from four matches, averaging 28 points per game.
Melbourne have a 50% winning record from eight appearances in week two finals. Wins coming in 1998, 1999, 2008, and 2019; with losses in 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2013.
Team line-up
Nick Meaney
Will Warbrick
Marion Seve
Justin Olam
Reimis Smith
Cameron Munster
Jahrome HughesTui Kamikamica
Harry Grant
Christan Welch ©
Trent Loiero
Eliesa Katoa
Josh King
Alec MacDonaldTom Eisenhuth
Nelson Asofa-Solomona
Tariq Sims
Grant Anderson
Bronson Garlick
Tepai Moeroa
Tyran Wishart
Sualauvi Fa’alogo
Referee: Ashley Klein (Bunker: Chris Butler)
Preview
The 49th meeting between the Storm and Roosters will be the fifth time the teams have played each other in the finals. Since the Roosters won the 2018 preliminary final to eliminate the Storm at the #ShitCG, Melbourne have won seven of the eight meetings. Melbourne won the two matches in 2023 putting up good scores in round 6 and 20.
As predicted in my last post, my Tuesday afternoon was ruined when Ashley Klein and Adam Gee were not rightfully dropped for failing to send off Jack Wighton for biting Tyson Gamble in the Knights win over the Raiders. Klein as the referee in the middle probably should have been dropped this week. Gee as the bunker official who reviewed the evidence and did not recommend a send off should not be officiating again this season. Alas, the NRL sees differently because reasons. Of course Melbourne got Ashley Klein. In 2022 Melbourne couldn’t win a game when he was the referee. Surprisingly that trend has been reversed in 2023, with the Storm claiming wins against the Eels (twice), Roosters, Sharks and Broncos when he’s held the whistle.
After both teams suffered injuries last week, there were always going to be changes on Team List Tuesday. For Melbourne, Justin Olam and Reimis Smith1 return in the backline, with Young Tonumaipea dropped following his defensive efforts against the Broncos. Xavier Coates was ruled out, and with Ryan Papenhuyzen recovering from surgery, it looks like Alec MacDonald has earned a recall on the bench. That could be subject to change with Bronson Garlick and Tepai Moeroa both on the reserves bench.2 I suspect that Grant Anderson and Sualauvi Fa’alogo will drop off the reserves list come Thursday night.
For the Roosters, Billy Smith (jaw), Joseph Manu (hamstring) and Joseph Suaali’i (concussion) will all miss this week, with the Roosters having a number of options to replace the trio. At the moment former Storm player Paul Momirovski has been named in the centres with Corey Allen. Daniel Tupou will also be missing through injury, which is a blow for the visitors given he scored two tries against Melbourne in July. Coming back to AAMI Park will be the mouth himself Brandon Smith. Smith struggled in the first meeting back in April, and came off the bench in the second clash in July. For more on the Roosters replacement backs, read Nick Campton’s latest.
After looking dead and buried during a lengthy mid-season slump, the Roosters will be looking for their seventh straight win this week, but with five of those wins coming against teams that didn’t make the finals, was it a false dawn for the Chooks? Their win against the Sharks last week looked like a slugfest between two mediocre teams, a label that Melbourne has also flirted with this season.
After last week, Melbourne will need to start strongly in order to find some kind of attacking groove. Hopefully that means Jahrome Hughes3 and Nick Meaney are able to link up with the right edge, while Cameron Munster does his usual thing down the left channel. For that to happen, Melbourne’s middle forwards and Harry Grant will need to be much better than they were against the Broncos. If Tariq Sims is to play, I’d almost prefer him to start in place of Tui Kamikamica, go hard at it for 20 minutes and then let Tui and Nelson Asofa-Solomona be unleashed.
The pattern this season from Melbourne is that we should know early on which Melbourne Storm team has turned up. If the attitude and effort is there, then Melbourne should be able to get over the Roosters and wrap up a win with some ease. The Chooks will likely lose their heads and it wouldn’t surprise if one of them sits for 10 minutes for some idiotic play. However, if Melbourne are out-enthused early and are put on the back foot like they were against the Broncos, trouble will be brewing and it wouldn’t surprise if the Storm can’t find enough points to match it with the Roosters.
For actual analysis of how Melbourne can exploit the Roosters this week, this from Jason Oliver at Rugby League Writers is top notch as always.
My prediction:
Queensland Cup Grand Final – Burleigh Bears vs Brisbane Tigers
On Sunday afternoon (5:30pm kick off) Melbourne Storm feeder club Brisbane Easts Tigers will face off against the minor premiers Burleigh Bears for the Hostplus Cup Grand Final to decide the Queensland Cup premiers for season 2023.
The Bears will enter the match as favourites, helped by their impressive 57–8 win over the Wynnum Manly Seagulls in their preliminary final on the weekend. The Tigers progressed to the Grand Final after a tight 14–6 win over the Capras, with Kane Bradley scoring the match-sealing try with 10 minutes to go.
The Tigers will feature Melbourne Storm players Kane Bradley, George Jennings, Jordan Grant, Joe Chan, and development players Cole Geyer and Tristan Powell. Former Storm player Ryley Jacks is the captain of the Tigers, and there’s also a bunch of Storm triallists also lining up for Easts. For the Bears there’s a sprinkling of Titans players in what will be the Bears last game affiliated with the Gold Coast team.
For more on the QCup Grand Final, head over to Liam’s Maroon Observer.
I’ll be cheering on the Tigers, if only to have a team to watch on NRL Grand Final day.
Reimis helping Xavier off the field after his injury last week was heartbreaking for X, but shows the quality of Reimis Smith.
MacDonald has also been named as a reserve for the Tigers in the Queensland Cup Grand Final, so my guess is as good as yours as to which game he plays in.
Editor’s note: this was written before Hughes calf injury was known. Sigh