With the season starting with the NRL’s trip to Moama Las Vegas this Sunday,1 it’s time to get out the mysterious purple orb2 and look ahead to what might happen over the next six months.
Looking around the NRL
Back in November when the draw came out, my initial analysis was that this season will be tough for the Melbourne Storm.
Opening with the season with the reigning premiers, albeit at AAMI Park, will create headlines no matter the result. Especially with the Panthers embarrassed by losing their fourth World Club Challenge match.
But as we saw in September 2023, Melbourne were a definite rung below the two grand final teams. Penrith3 have the measure of the Storm through both personnel and discipline, and while Brisbane’s 2023 methods might not be sustainable, their tactics are something the Storm struggled with in the qualifying final. I’m sure the coaching staff will have some thoughts on how to beat both teams, and there is hope that one or both could falter in 2024, but Melbourne will need to position themselves perfectly to have a crack at premiership trophy number seven.
As for the rest of the chasing pack, the Roosters will be thereabouts again this season having bought in some quality players, while the Warriors will be pushing hard for both their first win against Melbourne since 2016 and another top four spot. I can see both happening for the men from across the ditch in 2024, especially now they’re out of the spotlight on ANZAC Day.4
If those are the top four teams in 2024, that puts Melbourne into the battle for the bottom half of the top eight, where things could get tricky. The Storm could be thrust into a fight for the remaining top eight positions with Newcastle, Cronulla, Souths, Parramatta, North Queensland and Manly. Of these teams, I suspect Souths and Cronulla have the biggest claims to maintain their position (Cronulla), or amend their slide (Souths) from 2023. The Sharks should be able to get off to a reasonable start to the season, especially if they can knock over the Warriors in round one, which should see them firmly ensconced in the top eight for some time. Any upset losses could cause some consternation in the Shire though, as I’m not sold on their depth, but any team with Nicho Hynes is going to compete hard.
Souths are harder to read than an AI-written Sports Illustrated article. I can only assume that they will improve, but by the same token a wasted season and missing the finals again are equally possible.
Newcastle’s fortunes rest solely on the fragile melon of Kalyn Ponga. If he misses any stretch of matches this season through concussion/injury, the Knights could be toast. Losing Dom Young to the Roosters will hit their potential to score tries hard and I can see them missing the finals if luck doesn’t go their way. I’m not sold on their halves pairing at this stage either, but Adam O’Brien might have enough coaching nous to will them back into the finals again.
Parramatta — it’s never your year. Long may the curse continue.
North Queensland and Manly strike me as two teams that could replace teams that made the finals in 2023, but at the same time could find themselves mired in mediocrity. Manly especially look mediocre for the majority of their line-up, but could chalk up enough wins to see them factor in the fight for the top eight. The Cowboys should be able to return to the finals, but their best and worst efforts are far too disparate. If they can find a manageable level they also should be a factor late in the season as a disappointing 2023.
As for the teams that I don’t think will have too much of an impact in 2024, I suspect Canberra should have already sacked Ricky Stuart and are likely to regress even further. Their eighth placed finish in 2023 was inflated by the various afflictions that caused South Sydney, Parramatta and North Queensland to miss the finals.
The Dolphins, Gold Coast, Canterbury, St Merge and Wests Tigers are not serious contenders for the finals, but it wouldn’t be a shock if one of those five teams improves enough to threaten to make a run into September. Who that could be, I’m not sure and I also don’t really care enough.5
Where does that leave Melbourne?
There were times in 2023 that Melbourne looked like finishing somewhere from fifth down to ninth. In the end a third-placed finish was earned, though still a full two wins behind Penrith and Brisbane.
That difference saw Melbourne on the back foot, losing to the Broncos, escaping against the Roosters and failing to turn up against the Panthers in the finals. To bridge that gap, Melbourne would need to get off to a perfect start winning both home games to start the season, winning in Newcastle and potentially not losing before the trip to the SFS in mid-April. Realistically, that seems beyond this Melbourne roster as it is currently constructed. A more likely scenario could see Melbourne with less than 50% wins coming up to the ANZAC Day match against Souths. If that’s the case, May could be massive for Melbourne in trying to get back in the top eight hunt before #wrongpriorities season. Any defeats during the distracted part of the season could be costly considering the club’s fixture at the back of the season.
The pre-season trials has seen Josh King transition even more into the middle forward rotation (a good thing) which opens up his former role at lock forward for a more dynamic, ball-playing option. Melbourne fans in 2023 saw enough to surmise that role shouldn’t be going to Trent Loiero, with calls from some quarters that his edge forward role should also go to someone else. I’ve been impressed with Joe Chan and Jack Howarth in the limited opportunities they’ve been afforded, with Howarth seemingly getting it finally after a few years in the Melbourne system. New signing Shawn Blore will also be looking for a chance in first grade. I’ve been anxious about why Alec MacDonald and Tepai Moeroa haven’t been featuring in the trials, but less concerned that big NAS has yet to be seen on the park. Hearing Christian Welch speak and seeing his work against the Knights in Fiji has me hoping that his best form will return in 2024, with his subtle offload work and kick pressure going to be much needed. There’s something about Melbourne’s depth in the forward pack, but it still feels like it is missing a certain je ne sais quoi when looking over the back fence at other teams.
In the backs, the departure of Justin Olam has potentially solved one issue, with Nick Meaney looking very swole in his appearance in the centres against the Knights. I have enough confidence in a back five that includes Ryan Papenhuyzen, Will Warbrick and Xavier Coates; although I still worry about Paps in every tackle and run that he makes.6
Cameron Munster and Jahrome Hughes are in their prime in the halves, and new skipper Harry Grant should be able to lead from the front with the ball and in defence. Hopefully the three of them can combine well without needing to play panic football. Jonah Pezet and Sua Fa’alogo should be great back-ups when required, with both pushing for a bench utility role too.
Melbourne’s personnel issues compared to Brisbane and Penrith possibly come down to that one percent of x factor. Are Melbourne special enough to be able to chase down a deficit? Can the players embrace discipline to turnaround possession and potential issues with referees? Are the coaches able to adapt on the fly to the novel approaches some teams take when playing against Melbourne? The answers to these questions all need to be a resounding yes if the Storm are to return to the NRL Grand Final in October 2024.
I can’t say I’m cautiously optimistic about Melbourne’s prospects in 2024, but I’m not as altogether negative as I could be just yet. My hope is that someone7 knocks off the Panthers this year, and as the last team to do so in a Grand Final, maybe Melbourne could do it again…
Predictions
Summarising all the waffle above:
Top tier teams: Penrith, Brisbane;
Should go well: Warriors, Sydney;
Fighting for the top eight: Melbourne, Cronulla, South Sydney, Newcastle, North Queensland, Manly, Parramatta;
Mediocrity: Canberra;
There’s always next season: Dolphins, Canterbury, St Merge, Gold Coast, Wests Tigers.
Now watch this be terribly wrong and I lose any credibility I have left.8
As for #wrongpriorities, I expect NSW might actually win two games this year.
Storm Machine content in 2024
There should be some some kind of routine from next week.
There will be a weekly preview post on Thursdays or Fridays with some kind of feature, followed by a recap of each match coming out no later than Mondays.9 There will be some weeks (I’m looking at you #SackThursdayNightFootball) which might be a little different, but we’ll see how that goes.
If you’re a Storm fan who wants to get in touch about writing a guest piece or have me opine on some random thing, let me know and I’ll be happy to hear from you.10
Check your local guides on how to avoid the 9000th showing of Fox League’s promo narrated by Matt fucking Nable.
A real thing later identified as a new species of velutinid (see p.16 of the PDF).
and Adam Gee
Melbourne starting the season 0–2 for the first time since 2001 should fill me with dread, but as it feels more likely than not, maybe I’m resigned to this fact already.
Liam over at Maroon Observer has in-depth previews for the Queensland teams; for The Bad Place teams head to League Unlimited or your media of choice.
Don’t hurt him, he’s only little.
Bueller?!
Currently hovering at just above zero.
When these recaps take the form of memes/gifs/slam poetry, don’t be surprised.
Or if there’s something Storm or rugby league related I can read or promote, except podcasts. I’m not listening.